Early warning desk
Unusual combinations requiring analyst attention. Triage signal, not conflict probability.
How the warning is calculated
35% precursor language. Force posture, protective action, coercive pressure, and systems-disruption phrases are counted across independent sources.
30% NATO posture shift. Weighted official-page vocabulary in the latest seven days is compared with up to twelve prior weeks using a median/MAD baseline.
35% market dislocation. Five-session changes in WTI crude, VIX, and US high-yield spreads are measured against robust historical distributions.
Missing components are excluded and weights renormalized. Validated market inputs may be retained for at most 72 hours, are visibly marked, and reduce confidence. Two elevated independent components add a disclosed five-point concurrence bonus.
Every score publishes component values, evidence, weights, health, timestamps, and source links in output.json. Elevated readings require review; they do not prove that conflict will occur.