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        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-01T22:42:48.160655+00:00",
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        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-02T05:39:21.432824+00:00",
        "score": 6.3,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 17.6,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-02T12:37:30.880102+00:00",
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        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-02T22:15:52.537918+00:00",
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        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-03T05:20:33.893664+00:00",
        "score": 6.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:41:21.530144+00:00",
        "score": 6.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-03T16:19:18.398248+00:00",
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        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-03T21:17:21.906033+00:00",
        "score": 6.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-04T05:55:21.300307+00:00",
        "score": 6.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-04T12:23:51.728822+00:00",
        "score": 6.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:27:22.583819+00:00",
        "score": 6.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:42:38.004146+00:00",
        "score": 6.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 17.6,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-05T14:42:25.517008+00:00",
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        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "nato_posture_shift": 0.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-06T00:04:21.561234+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "nato_posture_shift": 0.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-06T06:22:52.120383+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:23:30.831343+00:00",
        "score": 1.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 4.1,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-07T06:02:32.818289+00:00",
        "score": 1.1,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 3.8,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-07T13:26:26.758849+00:00",
        "score": 1.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 5.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-07T23:06:42.778140+00:00",
        "score": 3.8,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 12.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-08T06:06:38.642967+00:00",
        "score": 3.8,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 12.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-08T13:31:54.444188+00:00",
        "score": 2.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 7.2,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-08T23:22:24.636648+00:00",
        "score": 0.7,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 2.3,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-09T06:11:01.480809+00:00",
        "score": 1.1,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 3.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-09T13:19:56.641323+00:00",
        "score": 1.9,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 6.2,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-09T22:39:51.081942+00:00",
        "score": 2.6,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 8.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-10T05:54:35.730664+00:00",
        "score": 2.6,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 8.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-10T12:34:14.369401+00:00",
        "score": 2.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "nato_posture_shift": 8.5,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-10T21:46:26.038436+00:00",
        "score": 2.4,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 8.1,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-11T05:49:06.455711+00:00",
        "score": 2.4,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 8.1,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-11T12:52:29.773126+00:00",
        "score": 4.8,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 16.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-11T21:59:26.123029+00:00",
        "score": 1.1,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 3.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:00:26.105377+00:00",
        "score": 2.9,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 3.8,
          "nato_posture_shift": 5.3,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-12T15:28:12.204382+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.8,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-13T00:41:33.419126+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "nato_posture_shift": 0.8,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-13T14:13:55.481224+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
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          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-13T22:46:32.168648+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.8,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T04:55:46.985076+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:54:36.945447+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T17:12:06.054815+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T21:42:27.970420+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T04:41:29.731904+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
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          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T11:31:29.682900+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T17:02:54.326863+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T21:24:23.700757+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-16T04:33:54.271222+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-16T11:26:34.736849+00:00",
        "score": 0.0,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.0,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:40:57.583767+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-16T21:10:28.206685+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-17T04:28:41.156129+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.6,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-17T10:46:41.201632+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:37:28.347426+00:00",
        "score": 1.5,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 3.8,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-17T20:37:59.661299+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "timestamp": "2026-10-18T04:36:18.014222+00:00",
        "score": 0.2,
        "level": "ROUTINE",
        "components": {
          "narrative_pressure": 0.0,
          "nato_posture_shift": 0.7,
          "cross_market_dislocation": 0.0
        }
      }
    ],
    "data_health": {
      "events_considered": 50,
      "independent_sources": 33,
      "nato_articles_considered": 100,
      "market_series_available": 3,
      "available_components": 3,
      "retained_components": [
        "cross_market_dislocation"
      ]
    },
    "method": {
      "name": "Conflict precursor concurrence model v1",
      "aggregation": "availability-renormalized weighted mean plus disclosed 5-point concurrence bonus",
      "weights": {
        "narrative_pressure": 0.35,
        "nato_posture_shift": 0.3,
        "cross_market_dislocation": 0.35
      },
      "market_anomaly": "five-session change vs median/MAD baseline; 1.4826*MAD scale",
      "nato_anomaly": "current seven-day weighted term rate vs up to 12 prior weekly rates",
      "narrative_taxonomy": {
        "force_posture": [
          "mobilization",
          "mobilisation",
          "reserve call-up",
          "troop buildup",
          "troop build-up",
          "military deployment",
          "combat readiness",
          "forward deployment",
          "airspace closure"
        ],
        "protective_action": [
          "embassy closure",
          "embassy evacuation",
          "leave immediately",
          "shelter in place",
          "civilian evacuation",
          "ordered departure",
          "travel warning",
          "border closure"
        ],
        "coercive_pressure": [
          "ultimatum",
          "blockade",
          "emergency meeting",
          "article 5",
          "collective defence",
          "collective defense",
          "strategic forces",
          "port closure",
          "maritime exclusion"
        ],
        "systems_disruption": [
          "internet shutdown",
          "communications blackout",
          "power outage",
          "gps jamming",
          "navigation interference",
          "cyberattack",
          "cyber attack",
          "undersea cable",
          "subsea cable"
        ]
      },
      "nato_terms": {
        "mobilization": 3.0,
        "mobilisation": 3.0,
        "article 5": 3.0,
        "forward defence": 2.5,
        "forward defense": 2.5,
        "reinforcement": 2.0,
        "force posture": 2.0,
        "combat readiness": 2.0,
        "defence plans": 1.8,
        "defense plans": 1.8,
        "collective defence": 1.5,
        "collective defense": 1.5,
        "deterrence": 1.0,
        "readiness": 1.0
      },
      "warning": "An elevated reading is a triage signal, not proof that conflict will occur."
    },
    "sources": [
      {
        "name": "NATO official pages via Google News RSS",
        "url": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news.htm"
      },
      {
        "name": "FRED",
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/"
      },
      {
        "name": "GDELT DOC methodology",
        "url": "https://blog.gdeltproject.org/gdelt-doc-2-0-api-debuts/"
      },
      {
        "name": "ViEWS early-warning design",
        "url": "https://viewsforecasting.org/"
      }
    ]
  }
}