{ "meta": { "project": "tr-economic-sentiment", "generated": "2026-10-05T06:31:59.427959+00:00", "mode": "live", "version": "2.0.0", "horizon": "0–30 days", "classification": "economic-strain-screening-not-recession-currency-or-market-forecast", "coverage": "5/5", "confidence": "HIGH", "source_notes": [] }, "warning": { "score": 1.5, "raw_score": 1.5, "concurrence_bonus": 0.0, "status": "BASELINE", "headline": "Türkiye economic-strain pressure is baseline at 1.5/100.", "interpretation": "The index detects unusual, concurrent pressure across the lira, imported energy, reserves, household confidence and economic narrative. It is an early-warning screen, not a recession, currency or market forecast." }, "components": { "lira_dislocation": { "key": "lira_dislocation", "score": 0.0, "status": "BASELINE", "weight": 0.3, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 127, "latest_date": "2026-10-02", "latest_value": 48.9699, "change_5d_pct": 0.37, "return_z": -1.3, "volatility_20d": 0.07, "volatility_z": 0.23, "method": "65% one-week TRY depreciation anomaly + 35% 20-session volatility anomaly.", "evidence": [ { "label": "USD/TRY reference rate", "value": 48.9699, "date": "2026-10-02", "url": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/kurlar/kurlar_tr.html" } ] }, "imported_energy": { "key": "imported_energy", "score": 0, "status": "BASELINE", "weight": 0.25, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 119, "latest_date": "2026-09-29", "latest_value": 5574.1, "change_5d_pct": -0.44, "return_z": -0.31, "method": "Five-observation robust anomaly in Brent priced in TRY (Brent USD × USD/TRY).", "evidence": [ { "label": "Brent in TRY proxy", "value": 5574.1, "date": "2026-09-29", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU" } ] }, "reserve_buffer": { "key": "reserve_buffer", "score": 0.0, "status": "BASELINE", "weight": 0.2, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 58, "latest_date": "2026-08-01", "latest_value": 69586.44, "change_1m_pct": 9.02, "adverse_3m_pct": -30.74, "change_z": -0.88, "method": "70% adverse monthly reserve-change anomaly + 30% three-month drawdown magnitude.", "evidence": [ { "label": "Reserves excluding gold, USD mn", "value": 69586.44, "date": "2026-08-01", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TRESEGTRM052N" } ] }, "consumer_confidence": { "key": "consumer_confidence", "score": 0.0, "status": "BASELINE", "weight": 0.15, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 58, "latest_date": "2026-08-01", "latest_value": 90.8, "change_1m_pct": 1.11, "adverse_3m_pct": -5.83, "change_z": -0.22, "method": "70% adverse monthly confidence-change anomaly + 30% three-month deterioration.", "evidence": [ { "label": "OECD consumer confidence", "value": 90.8, "date": "2026-08-01", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSCICP02TRM460S" } ] }, "narrative_strain": { "key": "narrative_strain", "score": 15.0, "status": "BASELINE", "weight": 0.1, "available": true, "retained": false, "coverage": 123, "matched": 25, "weighted_density": 0.252, "method": "Weighted stress-term density in three fixed seven-day Turkish economic RSS queries.", "evidence": [ { "title": "Fon krizi sonrası iki dev kuruluştan kritik Türkiye yorumu! - Haber 7", "source": "Haber 7", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxPYXdwR05RZ0tNcTc5VlZNLWpvYWFVdXRzZElXOFJBYTVIMUdtVnBvU1ByVEdxVDg0ZkdrRXhrakhESjlzQ2VfOWIwVUJ3dEp6dmViX08za25wZTVNdERFazdZLVhQUUU5NkxEUWdNc2V2Y1BVOEdfMnVvMlBuUkVPbmsyUE1TcWp2aksxbmNJUDQyWERURG55NENIU21Qckt0eVNuRXllRzRDcGfSAa4BQVVfeXFMT2RXb1Z0d1FiRWFnQngtX2dlTG5vU1R4OUVYeDJKenlvamVkdl9WOHhXTFdPWjZxbEZHVldIdUtoUzNwWU9JVkg5MEJIZkJCS3UyR29wUXBQS3JWdWhSQWh1REp2SEV3SGNZMTFrUVFNMTk3X1BESjQ4dVZZMVZoWjg4SDBqVkV3b2dEckFvOV9GeTUxdmtzMXN1Qm5MSm1iakFZVzl5bFVyZThyY2h3?oc=5", "published": "2026-10-04T06:42:00+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Türkiye’de fon krizi derinleşiyor: JPMorgan’dan kritik ekonomi analizi - Sözcü", "source": "Sözcü", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxPMVhqSkg0bVJxZXNvZ0VmUHIwMnJuc3NpQUFxNG81Mms1elNKT1p5Nl9vLWZmN3VUTTJsXzBFS1hQMF9LaTFwVFJYSzBUWWxYUzA1Z3dnTFZ6WHRpdlltLUhoYWgzdWRodXl2THdrOEkyak5nLUhaMTNIVG5DakItSDV1UGUzYW1TZVBJNHl5S2dtWU96RHRZZE9CaDh4cUpRekh5aw?oc=5", "published": "2026-10-04T06:34:22+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Bahçeli'den fon krizi açıklaması: 'Türkiye bir arınma sürecinden geçiyor' - BBC", "source": "BBC", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXkFVX3lxTE5EOEtSVVVtVUphVmZhdGZDS0NhdjBMRHNRNS0xd1QwNXc3R2Y1MXdqMGFzRGtTYkFpY1cwZFk0MHpXYXZWQVhtTzdBLTVTV1NtTnlDUlRzVHV1bU43QXfSAWNBVV95cUxQTjFIdVg3S2lJMDUyeHBkMmpVYnY4V1F5OHFVM0JPd05wTnFTSWRFR01nV2hkZVh6bEVPczRXU00zZVlwRzVVYUhDenZFblFQTE1BVk9mTHdaMHlYM2tMTTVlMlE?oc=5", "published": "2026-10-03T15:30:08+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "‘Avrupa’nın enerji krizi bize fatura ediliyor’ - Akdenizmanset", "source": "Akdenizmanset", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxNMEozcFFlRGVLamwyd0g1RUVDZVBHMmVLQjFKaldvXzF2dWR2T21ESmxDc01PQy12SUNHN0lGUHIxbjZtRDVObnlLRU5CdVpqdFRwalJjN0JGbkRXX0R0aWowUWZjZVQ5a2thLWFFQ2lZTzNVNFlTbF9NaUlJV0FENE1R?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-30T08:23:00+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Ekonomideki sessiz kriz büyüyor - Yeni Asya", "source": "Yeni Asya", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9qaEk1dnpfQU9HVTJTb1U3Xzg0djJIaElVTUhYc0JmaktFQm1NNlNQaUdacHk5czg0bVFFZG5GM0ZKanpyNjVlaHNoY2ZocVVXVU1sYnMtX2Q4RDFlQUdZajA1WjZGVGVjWVpwTjVfR016UmNwZW96RUdwWW9GUEU?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-29T22:31:00+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Fitch'ten Türkiye ekonomisi için kritik mesaj: Fon krizi sistematik risk oluşturmaz kredi notunu etkilemez - Yeni Şafak", "source": "Yeni Şafak", "url": "https://news.google.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?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-29T17:14:22+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Fon krizi sonrası gözler Fitch'e çevrildi! Winslow'dan Türkiye açıklaması - A Haber", "source": "A Haber", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxNQVo4ZjdndVc4VFVLZGFRVzBGelRKWk5LQ3FQTXRnTG1BZ3lSWWMyUmxYY0E3Zy1zNEZ5UElVMFR5bkl5UWI5aU1IYmtHRGNTd3hlUkZTMGpZV0lZZ2VWanNhRTBFR3U4MU9MZHlFRjdaWjJkMk11TTYyVnRUOU4wNGZCYXNUcnZQT2JvZmxsbG8xODNhTC1UOVdNSWhONkpUWkdha0oxSVMySnc?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-29T16:53:14+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan ekonomi kurmaylarını topladı: Fon krizi masada - Yeni Şafak", "source": "Yeni Şafak", "url": "https://news.google.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?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-29T11:36:00+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Türkiye ekonomisinde sessiz kriz: Erken sanayisizleşme - T24", "source": "T24", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikgFBVV95cUxPZy1fcDd1T3g0R2h6N05FaTBFNUxpdXRINk02NkxxNTM2N1F1dXJzcUs1aEtON3F4SV9jVXRVc0g1TXdkTnVXQ3ZadEg3MU9SMVNXS1piNW14eGpGWmpwOENlclVyRFZyREhuRWVPX1VtVU1wZDdFZ05hZ1N4UjdtMDFLZF91QkpWWVBCREpuZnBHdw?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-29T10:12:00+00:00", "terms": [ "kriz" ], "weight": 2.0 }, { "title": "Türkiye'de işsizlik oranı ağustosta bir önceki aya göre 0,3 puan azaldı - Anadolu Ajansı", "source": "Anadolu Ajansı", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQQU5pS095R0xaaWpxR2ktRmJSVTNGNURSb3prLWt2TFluM3BGbVJNbGZMQUo1TTYxeE1ROXhBbkpZbUowQXgzZ0otNUpOWjVtaEFmRHdkd0FwMEVxcENLSEJNZUJpeFFPSm5IdVNJcGR5dTBKM1QwTE5RWkxBT0xOYndTSUpDNFQ4VXdDMzFFMDJFVWRXc0ZNNTlOMnR2YTJ4WHNlWG9sM2I3U19LVVMydA?oc=5", "published": "2026-09-30T12:59:32+00:00", "terms": [ "işsizlik" ], "weight": 1.5 }, { "title": "TÜİK eylül ayı enflasyon verilerini açıklayacak - BBC", "source": "BBC", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiXkFVX3lxTE81WFBoRGo2S1ptRDlxQWtuc3Z3N0tLWTZWTXhMUFdBblppZ3g1eE9TXzFscDBWWnJvRDd6a1B1cllZNnF4eTZ6eGlfbHZvSTBtRGxFVkRWTVU4NVdTTkHSAWNBVV95cUxOOUxSc3FiZXNYd0E2cFhwcFdpaHZXUnRYN243Yjdzb1NLeFpGeDZYV2pUTU56SWZOaTItOEtFMkZGNDZacXRYRURQWlFxTHphVURqY1l5UkJJVTg3X0R3YU5EMzQ?oc=5", "published": "2026-10-05T06:09:20+00:00", "terms": [ "enflasyon" ], "weight": 0.8 }, { "title": "Doç. Dr. Işıl: Yeni haftanın rotasını enflasyon, faiz ve enerji belirleyecek - ekotürk", "source": "ekotürk", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxQNEhjNGRwOUFSenlhZEhvZXhpMklQclpjZFZBNHdWS0M3RDhVM3hidzVoMXctNV9FckxrZ29lME51UWVUS2pDN3ZydzYxTzdmeDVReFlNM0J5aGlXNENXOHdVWVljWEZzWEJITHJHSkZiWW5NTUhkc0ZBZENsM3h0dUJhVWlHQmdLY3VPaHNMV2RQSHdSbU90SDl6TjFRdFk2Y0dyaGx4TGV1MjBmWDBBTVpVbXJMZ0RoUmxz?oc=5", "published": "2026-10-05T06:06:12+00:00", "terms": [ "enflasyon" ], "weight": 0.8 } ] } }, "history": [ { "generated": "2026-09-18T16:55:21.427760+00:00", "score": 12.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-18T21:24:19.675175+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-19T05:28:41.319670+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-19T11:46:32.544515+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-19T16:13:07.974179+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-19T21:17:10.450209+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-20T05:41:19.911791+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-20T12:00:32.346169+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-20T16:40:32.441405+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-20T21:09:37.274569+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-21T05:53:08.551538+00:00", "score": 11.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-21T13:35:51.285774+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-21T22:25:21.584893+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-22T05:50:57.168614+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-22T12:20:12.870573+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-22T17:30:47.893616+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-22T21:45:45.522623+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-23T05:28:44.490304+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-23T12:32:24.644265+00:00", "score": 11.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-23T17:41:46.812457+00:00", "score": 0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-23T22:01:52.199772+00:00", "score": 0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-24T05:50:33.595448+00:00", "score": 0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-24T12:32:20.192632+00:00", "score": 0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-24T17:43:49.433997+00:00", "score": 0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-24T21:56:43.372678+00:00", "score": 0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-25T05:46:59.199197+00:00", "score": 0.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-25T12:32:40.993628+00:00", "score": 0.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-25T17:45:22.252582+00:00", "score": 0.5, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-25T21:58:29.957737+00:00", "score": 0.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-26T05:50:00.429046+00:00", "score": 0.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-26T12:03:51.419845+00:00", "score": 0.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-26T16:52:05.435253+00:00", "score": 1.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-26T21:48:17.433652+00:00", "score": 1.1, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-27T06:10:50.118638+00:00", "score": 1.1, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-27T12:43:16.507360+00:00", "score": 0.7, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-27T17:28:01.502385+00:00", "score": 0.8, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-27T21:50:09.193253+00:00", "score": 1.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-28T06:18:05.215655+00:00", "score": 1.1, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-28T14:55:35.502117+00:00", "score": 2.5, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-28T23:40:57.777794+00:00", "score": 2.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-29T06:33:46.151944+00:00", "score": 2.5, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-29T13:43:06.724968+00:00", "score": 1.6, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-29T22:49:33.370609+00:00", "score": 2.1, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-30T06:16:49.314732+00:00", "score": 1.9, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-30T13:19:25.291473+00:00", "score": 2.7, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-09-30T22:48:31.507425+00:00", "score": 3.3, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-01T06:49:03.927882+00:00", "score": 3.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-01T14:09:27.942008+00:00", "score": 2.7, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-01T22:58:57.595672+00:00", "score": 2.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-02T06:39:56.497647+00:00", "score": 2.3, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-02T13:32:47.527096+00:00", "score": 1.7, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-02T22:48:21.486733+00:00", "score": 1.5, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-03T06:01:01.077424+00:00", "score": 1.3, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-03T12:12:32.806412+00:00", "score": 0.8, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-03T16:57:33.409234+00:00", "score": 1.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-03T21:58:09.878570+00:00", "score": 1.0, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-04T06:36:35.632130+00:00", "score": 0.8, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-04T13:01:44.369680+00:00", "score": 1.3, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-04T22:11:15.320420+00:00", "score": 1.2, "status": "BASELINE" }, { "generated": "2026-10-05T06:31:59.427959+00:00", "score": 1.5, "status": "BASELINE" } ], "sources": [ { "name": "TCMB", "role": "Official daily USD/TRY reference rates", "url": "https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/kurlar/kurlar_tr.html" }, { "name": "FRED / U.S. EIA", "role": "Daily Brent crude series DCOILBRENTEU", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU" }, { "name": "FRED / IMF", "role": "Monthly reserves excluding gold, TRESEGTRM052N", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TRESEGTRM052N" }, { "name": "FRED / OECD", "role": "Monthly consumer confidence, CSCICP02TRM460S", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSCICP02TRM460S" }, { "name": "Google News RSS", "role": "Deterministic Turkish economic-stress narrative sample", "url": "https://news.google.com/rss" } ], "methodology": { "weights": { "lira_dislocation": 0.3, "imported_energy": 0.25, "reserve_buffer": 0.2, "consumer_confidence": 0.15, "narrative_strain": 0.1 }, "fallback_hours": 72, "concurrence_rule": "+5 when a market channel and an independent macro channel are both at least 45" } }