Cloudy&Shiny Index

Part of Monarch Castle Technologies
MODEL: CSI-ENGINE-V3 FEED: LIVE SYSTEM ONLINE
SPY 62
QQQ 52
^GDAXI 72
^FCHI 48
^N225 45
000001.SS 49
^HSI 67
XU100.IS 53
^VIX 94
TLT 56
GLD 21
DX-Y.NYB 53

Sentiment and Forecast

Cloudy&Shiny Index
70.8
CLOUDY | Neutral
Sentiment Gauge
0 FEAR50 NEUTRAL100 GREED
48H Composite Trend
IndexSmoothed
24H Forecast Path
Base: 71.0 +0.1 (CLOUDY)
Bear 69.1 | Bull 72.8 Spread 3.7
Regime Transition 24H
STORMY
0.0%
CLOUDY
100.0%
SHINY
0.0%
Most Likely: CLOUDY
Forecast Driver Waterfall
Stock
+0.04
Crypto
+0.05
VIX-Inv
+0.03
Total Delta +0.13
Stock Sentiment
Crypto Sentiment
VIX Inverse

Methodology and Weights

Score = (Stock x 0.40) + (Crypto x 0.30) + ((100 - VIX norm) x 0.30)
Stock sentiment and Crypto fear/greed are normalized to 0-100.
VIX is normalized to 0-100 over rolling history, then inverted so higher means risk-on.
Regime bands: 0-20 STORMY, 21-80 CLOUDY, 81-100 SHINY.
Stock Component
40.0%
Crypto Component
30.0%
Inverse VIX
30.0%
US Basket
32.7%
Asia Basket
26.9%
Europe Basket
10.4%

Performance and Forecast Evidence

1D Delta
+0.3
Day-over-day mood shift
7D Delta
+2.5
Weekly regime movement
Intraday Vol
0.14
24h standard deviation
Component Spread
40.1
Stock/Crypto/VIX divergence
Momentum 6H
+0.0
Short-horizon acceleration
Backtest MAE 1H
0.16
Rolling out-of-sample error
Backtest MAE 6H
0.70
Mid-horizon forecast error
Backtest MAE 24H
1.47
Daily horizon error
Direction Hit 24H
59.1%
N=220 rolling windows
Forecast Confidence Dashboard
Coverage 24H
81.4%
Bias 24H
-0.12
Error Drift
-0.61

Asset Performance vs 60-Day MA

S&P 500
SPY
ABOVE MA
61.7
RSI: 46 Wt: 16.4%
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
ABOVE MA
52.2
RSI: 47 Wt: 16.4%
DAX
^GDAXI
ABOVE MA
72.4
RSI: 59 Wt: 5.4%
CAC 40
^FCHI
BELOW MA
47.7
RSI: 23 Wt: 3.7%
Nikkei 225
^N225
BELOW MA
45.2
RSI: 47 Wt: 5.1%
Shanghai Comp
000001.SS
BELOW MA
49.1
RSI: 48 Wt: 21.3%
Hang Seng
^HSI
ABOVE MA
67.3
RSI: 43 Wt: 0.4%
BIST 100
XU100.IS
ABOVE MA
52.8
RSI: 79 Wt: 1.4%
VIX Fear Index
^VIX
BELOW MA
93.7
RSI: 44 Wt: 7.5%
US 20Y Treasury
TLT
BELOW MA
55.8
RSI: 56 Wt: 7.5%
Gold
GLD
ABOVE MA
21.0
RSI: 54 Wt: 7.5%
US Dollar Index
DX-Y.NYB
BELOW MA
53.3
RSI: 48 Wt: 7.5%
Market Breadth Snapshot
Bullish 4
Neutral 7
Bearish 1

Reliability and Signal History

Feed Reliability

Stock LIVE 100.0%
Crypto LIVE 99.6%
VIX LIVE 100.0%
Overall Score: 99.9%
Data Age: 0.0 min
Fallback Rate: 0.3% | Failure Rate: 0.0%

Signal Board

Regime
Neutral
CLOUDY
Transition Prob
S 0.0% | C 100.0% | G 0.0%
CLOUDY
Momentum 6H
Stable
+0.0
Forecast 24H
Driver Crypto | S +0.0 C +0.1 V +0.0
71.0
Forecast Spread
sigma 1.00 | slope -0.03/h
3.7
Backtest 24H
RMSE 1.83 | Hit 59.1% | N 220
1.47
Intraday Vol
Calm
0.14
Component Spread
Consensus Low
40.1
Market Breadth
Bull 4 | Neutral 7 | Bear 1
+25.0

Historical Feed

Aug 30 00:00
CLOUDY
70.8
Composite mood
Aug 29 00:00
CLOUDY
70.5
Composite mood
Aug 28 00:00
CLOUDY
72.0
Composite mood
Aug 27 00:00
CLOUDY
71.8
Composite mood
Aug 26 00:00
CLOUDY
67.7
Composite mood
Aug 25 00:00
CLOUDY
69.9
Composite mood
Aug 24 00:00
CLOUDY
68.5
Composite mood

Component Snapshot

Stock Sentiment54.4
Crypto Fear and Greed69.0
Inverse VIX Score94.5
Composite - Stock Gap+16.4