Monarch CastleCloudy&Shiny Index
Collection

Cloudy&Shiny Index

Part of Monarch Castle Technologies
MODEL: CSI-ENGINE-V3 FEED: PUBLISHED SNAPSHOT Source status below
SPY 40
QQQ 31
^GDAXI 56
^FCHI 45
^N225 30
000001.SS 27
^HSI 23
XU100.IS 10
^VIX 84
TLT 42
GLD 89
DX-Y.NYB 44

Sentiment and Forecast

Cloudy&Shiny Index
44.1
CLOUDY | Neutral
Sentiment Gauge
0 FEAR50 NEUTRAL100 GREED
48H Composite Trend
IndexSmoothed
24H Forecast Path
Base: 45.0 +0.9 (CLOUDY)
Bear 42.6 | Bull 47.3 Spread 4.7
Regime Transition 24H
STORMY
0.0%
CLOUDY
100.0%
SHINY
0.0%
Most Likely: CLOUDY
Forecast Driver Waterfall
Stock
+0.36
Crypto
-0.49
VIX-Inv
+1.00
Total Delta +0.87
Stock Sentiment
Crypto Sentiment
VIX Inverse

Methodology and Weights

Score = (Stock x 0.40) + (Crypto x 0.30) + ((100 - VIX norm) x 0.30)
Stock sentiment and Crypto fear/greed are normalized to 0-100.
VIX is normalized to 0-100 over rolling history, then inverted so higher means risk-on.
Regime bands: 0-20 STORMY, 21-80 CLOUDY, 81-100 SHINY.
Stock Component
40.0%
Crypto Component
30.0%
Inverse VIX
30.0%
US Basket
32.7%
Asia Basket
26.9%
Europe Basket
10.4%

Performance and Forecast Evidence

1D Delta
-2.8
Day-over-day mood shift
7D Delta
-11.9
Weekly regime movement
Intraday Vol
1.37
24h standard deviation
Component Spread
19.3
Stock/Crypto/VIX divergence
Momentum 6H
-2.7
Short-horizon acceleration
Backtest MAE 1H
0.26
Rolling out-of-sample error
Backtest MAE 6H
1.02
Mid-horizon forecast error
Backtest MAE 24H
2.89
Daily horizon error
Direction Hit 24H
43.6%
N=220 rolling windows
Forecast Confidence Dashboard
Coverage 24H
67.7%
Bias 24H
+0.78
Error Drift
-0.54

Asset Performance vs 60-Day MA

S&P 500
SPY
BELOW MA
40.4
RSI: 33 Wt: 16.4%
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
BELOW MA
30.7
RSI: 27 Wt: 16.4%
DAX
^GDAXI
ABOVE MA
55.8
RSI: 63 Wt: 5.4%
CAC 40
^FCHI
BELOW MA
44.6
RSI: 65 Wt: 3.7%
Nikkei 225
^N225
BELOW MA
30.3
RSI: 32 Wt: 5.1%
Shanghai Comp
000001.SS
BELOW MA
27.4
RSI: 25 Wt: 21.3%
Hang Seng
^HSI
BELOW MA
22.5
RSI: 30 Wt: 0.4%
BIST 100
XU100.IS
BELOW MA
10.0
RSI: 18 Wt: 1.4%
VIX Fear Index
^VIX
ABOVE MA
84.1
RSI: 66 Wt: 7.5%
US 20Y Treasury
TLT
ABOVE MA
42.3
RSI: 74 Wt: 7.5%
Gold
GLD
BELOW MA
89.0
RSI: 34 Wt: 7.5%
US Dollar Index
DX-Y.NYB
ABOVE MA
44.4
RSI: 43 Wt: 7.5%
Market Breadth Snapshot
Bullish 2
Neutral 5
Bearish 5

Reliability and Signal History

Feed Reliability

Stock LIVE 100.0%
Crypto LIVE 100.0%
VIX LIVE 100.0%
Overall Score: 100.0%
Data Age: 0.0 min
Fallback Rate: 0.0% | Failure Rate: 0.0%

Signal Board

Regime
Neutral
CLOUDY
Transition Prob
S 0.0% | C 100.0% | G 0.0%
CLOUDY
Momentum 6H
Deceleration
-2.7
Forecast 24H
Driver VIX-Inv | S +0.4 C -0.5 V +1.0
45.0
Forecast Spread
sigma 1.22 | slope -0.00/h
4.7
Backtest 24H
RMSE 4.61 | Hit 43.6% | N 220
2.89
Intraday Vol
Calm
1.37
Component Spread
Consensus Medium
19.3
Market Breadth
Bull 2 | Neutral 5 | Bear 5
-25.0

Historical Feed

Nov 02 00:00
CLOUDY
44.1
Composite mood
Nov 01 00:00
CLOUDY
46.9
Composite mood
Oct 31 00:00
CLOUDY
45.7
Composite mood
Oct 30 00:00
CLOUDY
45.7
Composite mood
Oct 29 00:00
CLOUDY
59.5
Composite mood
Oct 28 00:00
CLOUDY
60.0
Composite mood
Oct 27 00:00
CLOUDY
57.5
Composite mood

Component Snapshot

Stock Sentiment40.3
Crypto Fear and Greed37.0
Inverse VIX Score56.3
Composite - Stock Gap+3.8